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Results of NewsChannel 13-SurveyUSA Poll in NY's 19th Congressional District

Republican John Faso and Democrat Zephyr Teachout are running for the seat in New York's 19th Congressional District. Republican John Faso and Democrat Zephyr Teachout are running for the seat in New York's 19th Congressional District. | Photo: Twitter.

November 01, 2016 05:04 PM

In NY's 19th Congressional District, Unclear if Democrat Teachout Can Maintain Narrow Advantage Given Buffeting At Top of Ticket:

Seven days until votes are counted in the high-profile contest to fill the open seat in New York's 19th Congressional District, either Democrat Zephyr Teachout or Republican John Faso may emerge victorious, with chaos in the presidential contest and closeness in the polling data presented here combining to make the outcome uncertain, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for WNYT NewsChannel 13 in Albany. The seat in the U.S. House of Representatives may be pivotal in determining which political party controls the House in the next (115th) Congress.

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At this hour, it's Democrat Teachout 45 percent, Republican Faso 42 percent, with 13 percent of likely voters undecided. Here is why those numbers should be interpreted cautiously -- 14 percent of the interviews for this survey were completed before the FBI announcement on Oct. 28 that it had discovered State Department emails on a previously unknown electronic device. In SurveyUSA interviews completed before the FBI announcement, Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in New York's 19th by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent. In interviews completed after the FBI announcement, Trump led Clinton by three points, 45 percent to 42 percent.

Lots of turbulence. Seat belts on.

If Teachout wins, it will be because of young voters, where she leads by 13 points, because of women, where she leads by 12, and because of lower-income voters, where she leads by nine. Voters who say health care is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout by 24 points. Voters who say the environment is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout 18:1.

If Faso wins, it will be because of high-school educated voters, where he leads by 32 points, and because of men, where he leads by seven. Voters who say corruption is most important in their vote for Congress, and voters who say that national security is most important in their vote for Congress, back Faso 2:1.

  • 77% of those who vote for Trump at the top of the ticket back Faso down-ballot.
  • 83% of those who vote for Clinton at the top of the ticket back Teachout down-ballot.
  • Teachout leads by 11 points among both moderates and independents.
  • For Teachout to seize the seat, she must prevent defections among these 2 groups in the campaign's final week.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 registered voters from NY-19 10/27/16 through 10/30/16, using Registration Based Sample (aka: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 598 as likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 26% of likely voters) were contacted by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent's cooperation, ensured the respondent's safety, asked the questions, noted the answers, and remained on the phone until the interview had concluded. NY's 19th Congressional District is a U-shape that wraps around Albany, extends to the Pennsylvania border and nearly to the New Jersey border on the bottom of the U, and includes most of the Catskill mountains. Incumbent Republican Chris Gibson, who won the district by 22 points in 2014, is not seeking re-election. Millions of dollars in outside money has poured into the district, in an attempt by the Republicans to hold this seat, and in an attempt by the Democrats to flip this seat.

1

  Asked of 598 likely voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 19th Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? Republican John Faso? Or Democrat Zephyr Teachout?

  • 42% John Faso (R)
  • 45% Zephyr Teachout (D)
  • 13% Undecided

2

  Asked of 598 likely voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

  • 45% Donald Trump (R)
  • 42% Hillary Clinton (D)
  •  4% Gary Johnson (L)
  •  3% Jill Stein (G)
  •  6% Undecided

3

  Asked of 598 likely voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

Which one of these issues is most important when deciding how you will vote in the election for United States Representative? The economy and jobs? Political corruption? Health care? National security? Environmental issues? Or something else?

  • 32% Economy
  • 21% Corruption
  • 13% Health Care
  • 12% National Security
  • 11% Environment
  •  8% Other
  •  3% Not Sure

4

  Asked of 598 likely voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

How much impact will the negative ads in the campaign have in your vote for United States Representative? A major impact? A minor impact? Or no impact at all?

  • 14% Major
  • 21% Minor
  • 63% No Impact
  •  2% Not Sure

5

  Asked of 598 likely voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

How much impact will your vote for President have on your vote for United States Representative?

  • 28% Major
  • 19% Minor
  • 48% No Impact
  •  5% Not Sure

6

  Asked of 598 likely voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

Incumbent Chris Gibson chose not to run for re-election. Are you happy with the choice between John Faso and Zephyr Teachout? Or do you wish Gibson had decided to run again?

  • 40% happy With Choice
  • 41% Wish Gibson had Run
  • 20% Not Sure

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs

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  Statement of Methodology

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  © 2016 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations

Credits

SurveyUSA

Copyright 2016 - WNYT-TV, LLC A Hubbard Broadcasting Company

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