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RPI professor predicts Capital Region could see peak in coronavirus cases in mid-May, early June

WNYT Staff
Updated: April 18, 2020 06:14 PM
Created: April 18, 2020 04:58 PM

A professor at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute is predicting when the Capital Region could see a peak number of coronavirus cases.

Dr. Malik Magdon-Ismail used data from the Department of Health and other sources to develop models that show many facets of how the pandemic will affect the Capital Region.

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"What we have found is that we can expect a peak somewhere between mid-May to early June in the Albany Region," said Dr. Magdon-Ismail.

The data includes when the virus will peak, which he said is based off how closely people follow social distancing.

"It also assumes that nothing else changes in the future with respect to how we are behaving," said Dr. Magdon-Ismail. "So you know, the current scenario that I've been playing out in the model assumed that 75 percent of people are staying at home. If that number changes drastically, let's say in the next week or so or in the next month, and let's say everyone goes back to work or more people start staying at home, then things will change."

Dr. Magdon-Ismail said it is difficult to model smaller cities because fewer data points are available and updated less frequently than national ones, or in an epicenter like New York City.

He hopes the work he is doing could help officials make decisions and be prepared in the event of another pandemic.


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