Early voting trends can’t predict election day turnout
There has been a large turnout for early voting all across New York. The state Board of Elections reports that over 700,000 voters cast ballots on the first weekend of early voting.
While some people are in and out of polling sites quickly, others have waited in long lines.
What does this all mean ahead of election day on November 5?
Ron Seyb, a political science professor at Skidmore College, said early voting trends cannot predict the outcome of an election but it can provide clues about who is voting.
“Most of the early voters now tend to be elderly, white, and tend to be more rural,” Seyb said. “It used to be the case back in 2020 for example, when Donald Trump was discouraging Republicans from using mail-in ballots and absentee ballots. You saw a partisan difference in early voting numbers.”
So far in this election cycle, Seyb said 6% more Republicans are early voting compared to 6% fewer Democrats.
“It seems like democrats now are kind of almost even-steven on this. A lot of them do want to vote early. A lot of them are voting on election day too,” Seyb said. “I think just because the discourse has changed around early voting. Now both parties are encouraging voters to vote early.”
Both the Democratic and Republican commissioners for the Saratoga County Board of Elections said 10% of all registered voters in the county have cast a ballot.
There are 179,000 registered voters in Saratoga County.
“I think it’s going to be the highest turnout election in American history…people are just turning out in this election like never before,” Joe Suhrada said, the Republican commissioner.
Commissioner Cassandra Bagramian (D) said they are fighting long lines at some polling sites. They’ve added more resources for voters to try and remedy the issue.
“We’ve deployed additional check-in stations and gotten better line control, and brought in more election inspectors to help voters through this process, we’re discussing doing extended hours over the weekend as well.”
To avoid long lines at early voting locations in Saratoga County, Bagramian and Suhrada suggest voting at Gavin Park in Saratoga Springs, the Greenfield Firehouse No. 1 in Greenfield Center, the Malta Community Center or Saratoga Springs Rec Center.
The Clifton Park-Halfmoon Library is their busiest polling location for early voting.
Below are links to voting resources in other Capital Region Counties: