Democrat Josh Riley has a lead of 4 percentage points over Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro in the race for the 19^th Congressional District, according to a poll commissioned by NewsChannel 13.

The poll, done by SurveyUSA, shows a different potential result in this rematch than two years ago. Molinaro is in his first term representing the district, which covers part of Rensselaer County and all of Greene and Columbia counties.

In 2022, Republican Molinaro beat Democrat Riley by 1.6 percentage points – about 4,500 votes.

The poll was conducted of 725 voters who live in the 19^th Congressional District, which includes 636 registered voters. A total of 46% said they were voting for Riley and 42% chose Molinaro. Twelve percent of likely voters told SurveyUSA they have not made up their minds.

There is a large gender gap. Riley leads by 12 points among women and Molinaro leads by 2 points among men.

There is also a difference by age of the voters. Riley leads by 22 points among voters age 35 to 49, by 9 points among those 50 to 64, and by just one point among voters 65 and older. Meanwhile, Molinaro holds a 13-point lead among 18 to 34-year-olds.

Among the major issues in the race are immigration and abortion.

People polled were asked if they believed that there should be a federal law restoring a nationwide right to abortion in all states, like it was under Roe v. Wade. A total of 58% said they supported a federal law, and 31% said it should be left to each state to decide. Of those who supported a federal law, 88% are backing Riley compared with 25% for Molinaro.

Those who favor letting each state decide whether abortion is legal, support Molinaro over Riley 66 percent to 8 percent.

Voters who describe the issue of migrants crossing the southern border as a crisis prefer Molinaro by a 70-point margin. Those who say it is a problem, but not a crisis, prefer Riley by 59 points. People who say it is not a problem at all back Riley by 21 percentage points.

Voters who say abortion, health care and gun control are the most important issue in the election back Riley. Molinaro is favored by people who view immigration, taxes or jobs and the economy as their top issue.

Impact of ads

Molinaro has a favorability rating of 32% compared with an unfavorable rating of 40%. Riley has a favorability rating of 37% compared with unfavorable rating of 31%.

Molinaro and Riley have been bombarding the airways with commercials.

When Survey USA asked 561 likely voters if they’d seen any ads on TV for Marc Molinaro or Josh Riley, 83 percent said they had, 12-percent said they hadn’t, and 5 percent weren’t sure.

Of people who had seen them, 22% said the ads made them feel more favorable toward Molinaro, and 41% said they made them feel less favorable.

For Riley, people said the ads made 32% feel more favorable and 36% less favorable.

College graduates favor Riley nearly 2 to 1.

Candidates respond

Molinaro’s campaign posted a response to the poll on their Facebook page.

“Polling got it wrong two years ago…The news had Riley leading by 5 points. Four days later, I won. We will win AGAIN because I put Upstate New Yorkers FIRST while Josh Riley wants to keep giving taxpayer funded perks to illegal immigrants.”

Riley posted a response to the poll on X. “The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, and we’re going to work our asses off to earn every vote from now til then.”

Presidential race

The survey also found a close race for president in this district. Vice President Kamala Harris led with 48% of those saying they would cast their ballot for her. Former President Donald Trump had support of 47% of those surveyed.

More: Complete poll results