Why AP called Georgia for Trump

By BRIAN SLODYSKO The Associated Press

Students dance as they watch election coverage at Spelman College, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)[ASSOCIATED PRESS/Brynn Anderson]

WASHINGTON (AP) — The story of how Donald Trump won the emerging swing state of Georgia is one of margins.

Four years ago, he lost the state by just under 12,000 votes. He reclaimed it by notching microscopic but difference-making improvements in his vote totals in dozens of deeply red counties, many of them small and rural. It was still enough to put him over the top with 50.8% of the vote when The Associated Press called the state for him at 12:58 a.m. Wednesday.

Though the race is likely to narrow as more ballots are counted, there were not enough votes to be tabulated in Democratic-leaning areas for Vice President Kamala Harris to overtake Trump’s lead, which would have required her to get 56.1% of the remaining vote. She also narrowly underperformed Joe Biden in some population-dense counties in the Atlanta metro area. For example, in Fulton County Biden got 72.59% of the vote in 2020. This year Harris got 71.89% when the race was called.

Those small differences were enough to secure Georgia’s 16 electoral votes for Trump. But they are also another salient data point that suggests Georgia will be a fiercely contested battleground for years to come.

CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

WINNER: Trump

POLL CLOSING TIME: 7 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE RACE:

Georgia was long considered a Republican stronghold. But in 2020, Biden’s squeaker victory made him the first Democratic presidential contender since Bill Clinton in 1992 to carry the state, an emerging political battleground made more competitive by changing demographics and the booming Atlanta metro area.

Still, there was little guarantee 2024 would be a repeat.

Harris aggressively campaigned in the state, but Georgia had appeared to be a bit more of a reach for her than other battlegrounds.

Still, Georgia’s political dynamics are volatile. And the state was still up for grabs going into Election Day because the Republican party’s grip loosened as older, white GOP voters died. They have often been replaced by a younger, more racially diverse cast .

But just because many moving to the booming Atlanta area brought their politics with them didn’t mean the fundamentals dramatically changed. Biden beat Trump by only 11,779 votes in 2020. Trump got all of the state’s 16 electoral votes.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: At the time the race was called, Trump was leading by 125,000 votes. Almost all advance votes in Georgia had been reported. His lead was larger than what Harris could be expected to make up from the remaining votes in Democratic strongholds. Trump was slightly ahead of his 2020 performance in enough counties to erase the deficit of less than 12,000 votes by which he lost Georgia four years ago.

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.