Why AP called Pennsylvania for Trump

By MIKE CATALINI The Associated Press

An election worker processes mail-in ballots for the 2024 General Election at the Philadelphia Election Warehouse, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)[ASSOCIATED PRESS/Matt Rourke]

WASHINGTON (AP) — If it wasn’t a red wave in the nation’s most consequential battleground, there was at least a red swell.

Donald Trump reclaimed Pennsylvania by improving his margins across the state, shaving Democratic President Joe Biden’s 2020 win in Philadelphia, expanding his own dominance in rural parts of the state, and — at the time The Associated Press called the race at 2:24 a.m. ET — flipping key suburban counties to the GOP column.

Trump led the state by some 175,000 votes at the time the AP called the race. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris were to carry the outstanding votes — which included ballots from counties she was losing — by 20 points over Trump, she still would not be able to close the gap.

Trump’s victory showed up across the state. In populous suburban Philadelphia’s Bucks County and neighboring Northampton County, Trump was leading — two places seen as bellwethers that Biden won four years ago. Trump did several points better in the populous Philadelphia suburbs of Chester and Delaware. He was winning in Erie in the northwest corner of the state, which Biden took narrowly four years ago.

Even in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia, Trump was doing 3 percentage points better than he did four years ago.

CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

WINNER: Trump

POLL CLOSING TIME: 8 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE: The biggest contested prize this year, Pennsylvania saw dozens of visits by Harris and Trump — more than any state.

The state was where Trump survived an assassination attempt in Butler over the summer. He has appeared at rallies and events across the state and donned an apron at a McDonald’s in suburban Philadelphia in an effort to connect with voters.

Harris appeared at the site where George Washington crossed the Delaware River during the Revolutionary War to highlight her support from some Republicans disillusioned by Trump. She held a get-out-the-vote rally in Philadelphia — a major source of Democratic support — in the race’s waning days.

Trump carried the state by a single point in 2016, while Biden defeated him by 1 point in 2020.

Pennsylvania struggled with a relatively new early voting option, which permitted voters to request mail ballots that could be cast before Election Day.

Unlike early voting in other states that have polling places, Pennsylvania counties saw lines of people seeking to get early mail ballots in part after Trump and billionaire Elon Musk encouraged Republicans to embrace mail-in voting. In 2020, Trump said baselessly that mail ballots were rife with fraud.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Trump performed better in traditionally Democratic Philadelphia than Biden did four years ago and improved his margins in key populous suburban counties. The race was called when it became clear that even if Harris won the outstanding votes by a wider margin than she had been, she couldn’t close the gap.

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.