The last recession happened in 2020 during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when millions of Americans were forced off the job.

NewsChannel 13 spoke with prominent Capital Region financial expert Hugh Johnson. He hopes President Trump’s high tariffs are meant to be a negotiating tactic with American trading partners, he said.

“So what you hope to see in the next few days is that lots and lots of countries negotiate the tariffs and negotiate them hopefully downward, lower, so that we’re not worried or as worried about higher inflation and an economic recession in the U.S.,” he said.

The biggest indicator of a recession is when payrolls go down, Johnson said.